U.S. House election, 2006

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Image:Voting box clipart.gif This article or section contains information about an upcoming election.
It is likely to contain information of a speculative nature and the content about candidates may change dramatically as the election approaches and more information becomes available.

Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7, 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Contents

Major parties

The House currently comprises 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, and 1 independent. The independent, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who is running for the Senate in 2006, is allied with the Democratic caucus.

The Democrats would need to pick up 16 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995.

Current Speculation

Current speculation about the 2006 elections naturally runs the gamut; However, there seems to be a consistent theme in the speculation of many pundits on both sides of the aisle- it's expected to be a tough year for the Republicans who currently control the House. Several factors play into this prediction:

  • The dip of President Bush's current job approval below 40% according to most respected national polls
  • Rising anti-Iraq war sentiment among Americans
  • The Federal Government's response to Hurricane Katrina, which many feel was sluggish
  • A variety of potential scandals involving leading Republicans
  • Early tracking polls specific to the elections pointing voters' favor away from the GOP.

Though these factors currently favor the Democratic Party, it is impossible to tell what will change in the months leading into an election, and there are factors that favor the Republicans as well:

  • The news may turn around and once again begin to favor President Bush and the Republicans, as it did in 2004.
  • It is much harder to defeat incumbents than it once was, largely due to widespread congressional redistricting.
  • The Republican political machine has in recent years proven to be far more effective at fundraising than its Democratic counterpart.

We may soon gain a clearer picture of the electorate in the months leading into the election.

Races to watch

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed below, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances listed above.

Retiring Representatives

California

  • Duke Cunningham (R-CA-50) — Following ethical questions about his dealings with a defense contractor, Cunningham announced on July 14, 2005 that he would not seek a ninth term in the House. This district includes the northern suburbs of San Diego and leans Republican.

Colorado

  • Bob Beauprez (R-CO-07) — Beauprez was reelected easily in 2004, but his retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat very competitive. The 7th District is located in the Denver suburbs. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell leads early polls for the Republicans, while former State Senator Ed Perlmutter leads on the Democratic side.

Florida

  • Mike Bilirakis (R-FL-09) — Bilirakis plans to retire, but few expect this seat to be competitive as it is a heavily Republican district located on Florida's Gulf coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, Gus, has announced that he will run for his father's seat.
  • Jim Davis (D-FL-11) — Davis is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains heavily Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg. Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller has announced that he will run for the House seat being vacated by Davis.
  • Katherine Harris (R-FL-13) — Harris is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, in 2006, and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is GOP-leaning and based in Sarasota. State Representatives Donna Clark and Nancy Detert are running for the Republican nomination. Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings is running for the Democratic nomination.

Idaho

  • Butch Otter (R-ID-01) — Otter is running for governor, and his seat, too, is expected to be safe for any Republican. Idaho's 1st contains more or less the western half of the state and is almost 70% Republican. State Comptroller Keith Johnson is among those seeking the seat.

Illinois

  • Henry Hyde (R-IL-06) — Hyde is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Christine Cegelis, who mustered 45% of the vote when running against him in 2004, plans to run again as a Democrat, while State Senator Peter Roskam is running as a Republican. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties.

Iowa

  • Jim Nussle (R-IA-01) — Nussle is running for governor as well. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including small cities such as Dubuque. State Representative Bill Dix, businessman Mike Whalen, and former state party chairman Brian Kennedy (politician) are running as Republicans, while attorney Bruce Braley and others are running as Democrats.

Maryland

  • Ben Cardin (D-MD-03) — Cardin is running for the open Senate seat in Maryland being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. In the last two elections, Cardin received the lowest vote for any Maryland incumbent Congressman. His House seat is within reach of a strong Republican candidate, but all the candidates to have announced so far (former Baltimore Health Commissioner Peter Beilenson, State Senator Paula Hollinger, and State Delegate Neil Quinten) are Democrats. Thus, this seat is expected to remain a Democratic seat. The district consists of parts of Baltimore City as well as parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Howard Counties. It includes the state capital of Annapolis.

Minnesota

  • Mark Kennedy (R-MN-06) — Kennedy is passing up re-election for his House seat to run for the open Senate seat in Minnesota being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. Republican candidates for the House seat include State Representatives Jim Knoblach and Phil Krinkie and ultra-conservative State Senator Michele Bachmann. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat, but recently committed to run for the Senate instead. The current Democratic candidates for MN-6 include Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former mayor of Blaine, Minnesota and a former minister; and Scott Mortensen, an Internet auto sales manager and a former assistant minister. Tinklenberg is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which called this one of their best opportunities to pick up a House seat - although Tinklenberg, who served as Minnesota's transportation commissioner under independent Jesse Ventura, notoriously makes little if any reference to the Democratic party in his campaign. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties.

Nebraska

  • Tom Osborne (R-NE-03) — Osborne is running for governor, not for Democrat Ben Nelson's Senate seat as some expected. His district, covering western Nebraska, is heavily Republican.

Nevada

  • Jim Gibbons (R-NV-02) — Gibbons is running for governor. His wife Dawn has expressed interest in running for his seat, as has Secretary of State Dean Heller. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is heavily Republican.

New Jersey

  • Frank Pallone (D-NJ-06) – Pallone is running for the Senate seat made open by the 2005 gubernatorial run of Democrat Jon Corzine. The district stretches through many beach communities in northeastern New Jersey. It is heavily Democratic.

New York

  • Major Owens (D-NY-11) — Owens is retiring after 12 terms. His seat should remain Democratic, as it is a heavily African-American one in heavily Democratic New York City in the center of Brooklyn. His son Chris Owens is seeking the seat, but so are state Assemblyman Nick Perry, State Senator Carl Andrews, and New York City Councilmen Yvette Clarke and David Yassky.

Ohio

  • Ted Strickland (D-OH-06) — Strickland is running for Governor of Ohio. His seat, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is Republican-leaning and should be competitive. Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson is planning a run.
  • Sherrod Brown (D-OH-13) — Brown is challenging Republican Senator Mike DeWine (he faces a primary battle with Paul Hackett). His district, in the Lorain/Akron area, has a strong Democratic tilt.

Oklahoma

Tennessee

  • Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN-09) — Ford is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist. Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.

Vermont

Wisconsin

  • Mark Green (R-WI-08) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. Assembly Speaker John Gard is seeking the seat as a Republican; businessman Jamie Wall and former De Pere Mayor and Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum are seeking the seat as Democrats.

Notable incumbent races

It is not clear which incumbents will face difficult or close races. However, based on the results of 2004, one can make a few projections.

First of all, should a Republican mid-decade redistricting effort go through in Georgia, two Democrats, Jim Marshall of the 3rd District (in middle Georgia) and John Barrow of the 12th District (in eastern Georgia), could face tough races. Marshall's district becomes much more Republican under the new redistricting map, while Barrow's becomes slightly more so.

Then, there are incumbents who may be vulnerable for non-redistricting reasons. These include:

California

An initiative on the November 8, 2005 ballot would result in nonpartisan redistricting in California. If it were to pass, Republicans could conceivably gain several seats in the California delegation.

  • Richard Pombo (R-CA-11) — Pombo, a longtime incumbent, won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. However, Pombo has used his chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee to pursue an aggressive program of anti-environmental legislation, including a draft bill that would have repealed the Endangered Species Act; the considerable amount of negative attention this has drawn from supporters of the environment may spur particular efforts to vote Pombo out of office. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election; he launched his campaign for the 2006 election early in 2005, ensuring that his campaign will be better prepared and pose a more formidable challenge this time around. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson, is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Colorado

  • John Salazar (D-CO-03) — Salazar was elected in 2004 by a 50-47 margin. The election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) seat nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado.
  • Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO-04) — Musgrave, a very conservative Republican who was one of the leading proponents of the Federal Marriage Amendment, won a surprisingly close 51-44 reelection in 2004 despite the Republican-leaning nature of her eastern Colorado district. Her district consists of all of Eastern Colorado well east of Denver and northeastern Colorado around Fort Collins and Loveland. Musgrave's approval ratings are weak.

Connecticut

  • Chris Shays (R-CT-04) — Shays won reelection by a 52-48 margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. 2004 nominee Diane Farrell is challenging Shays again. Additionally, there is reportedly significant support, among those in his party who are dissatisfied with his moderate stance, for a more conservative Republican to challenge Shays in the Republican primary - a move that, if it succeeded, would dramatically raise the chances for a Democrat to win the general election.
  • Rob Simmons (R-CT-02) — Simmons won reelection with 54% of the vote in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. 2002 nominee Joe Courtney is planning another run.

Florida

  • Clay Shaw (R-FL-22) Congressman Shaw has been elected to twelve terms in the house. Shaw is seeking reelection, to his seat. But many Democrats hope that this time around it will be unlucky number 13. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000, from State Senator Elaine Bloom. Who came very close to knocking him off. But he was redistricted into more favorable turf, and scored a somewhat easier reelections in 2002, and 2004. But now he is once again a top target of the Democrats this time State Senator Ron Klien plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close as Klien is a good fundraiser, and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004, winning 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George Bush by a margin of 51-49. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 died before the election night.

Illinois

  • Melissa Bean (D-IL-08) — Bean defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52-48 in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County, Illinois.
  • Mark Kirk (R-IL-11) — Although reliably Republican in past elections, the 11th CD, located in the northern suburbs of Chicago in coastal Cook County and Lake County, along Lake Michigan, voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama in 2004. Democratic hopes for winning here rose after Melissa Bean's win in the nearby 8th congressional district, which is more Republican. Democratic candidates may include medical malpractice attorney Zane Smith, the only declared candidate, Public advocacy attoney Clint Krislov, Jay Footlick, a former advisor on Middle Eastern affairs to President Clinton, and Schoolteacher Barry Bradford has won numerous teaching awards, is an evangelical and a moderate.

Indiana

  • Mike Sodrel (R-IN-09) — Sodrel defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes. Hill is considering an attempt to reclaim his seat.

Iowa

  • Jim Leach (R-IA-02) — Leach is one of the most, if not the most Liberal Republican in the House of Representatives, his district is considered to be a target as it is known be Democratic leaning.
  • Leonard Boswell (D-IA-03) — Boswell won a close reelection in 2004 in a very competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas.

Louisiana

  • Charlie Melancon (D-LA-03) — In a December 2004 runoff, Melancon squeaked into Congress by a margin of half a percentage point. His district is a Republican-leaning one in the southeast of Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of less effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. Melancon is facing 2004 candidate Craig Romero (R).
  • Charles Boustany (R-LA-07) — Boustany won 55-45 in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district, but if Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, runs again, Boustany may be very vulnerable. John won unopposed reelections in 1998, 2000, and 2002.

Minnesota

  • John Kline (R-MN-02) — Kline got a relatively easy win in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, but things will likely be very different in 2006. Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running, as a Democrat, and her presence is already garnering media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting in 2002 caused his defeat by Kline). Teresa Daly, who was the Democrat candidate against Kline in 2004, has not yet commented on whether she would run again. Daly's 2004 campaign manager responded to Rowley's announced candidacy by saying he "would not be surprised" if Daly decided to run again; however, at a post-election farewell soiree for her campaign workers in 2004, in private conversation, Daly suggested she felt disinclined to make another attempt.

New Mexico

  • Heather Wilson (R-NM-01) — Wilson has routinely managed narrow reelections since 1998, but in 2006 she will likely face Democrat Patricia Madrid, who is barred from seeking a third term as New Mexico's Attorney General. Madrid would undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive and was won by John Kerry.

New York

  • Peter King (R-NY-03) — King was elected by a healthy margain in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. His positions are consistently conservative in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal.


North Carolina

  • Robin Hayes (R-NC-08) — Hayes was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. However, his opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the T.V. show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% to 44% is a remarkably narrow margin. His district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. An issue might be made of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which could severely hurt textile jobs in his district.

Ohio

An initiative on the November 8, 2005 ballot would result in nonpartisan redistricting in Ohio, a move which would endanger the current pro-Republican gerrymander in the state and probably result in more Democratic seats from Ohio.

  • Jean Schmidt (R-OH-02) — Schmidt's district is traditionally Republican, and has been estimated as the 57th safest Republican seat in the country, but in a special election in 2005 she only narrowly won (by 3.5%) against a strong challenge by Democrat Paul Hackett. The surprisingly narrow margin in a race many took for granted at the outset may make her re-election tougher than normal. Support for a Democrat may continue to gain momentum in the continuing fallout from the Coingate scandal embroiling the Republican Ohio establishment.

Pennsylvania

  • Jim Gerlach (R-PA-06) — Gerlach won reelection by a 51-49 margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, the woman who garnered 49% against him in 2004, is running again.
  • Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA-08) — Fitzpatrick won in 2004, but his district is very moderate and even slightly Democratic. His views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Patrick Murphy has announced his candidacy and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than his 2004 counterpart, Ginny Schrader.
  • Tim Murphy (R-PA-18) — Murphy represents a Republican-leaning district centered around the suburbs of Pittsburgh and won handily in 2004 but, according to rumor, will likely face a strong challenge by popular former state treasurer Barbara Hafer. Hafer, a former Republican, is skipping the 2006 Senate race against Rick Santorum and is being urged to by the DCCC to run against Murphy.

South Dakota

  • Stephanie Herseth (D-SD-AL) — Herseth was elected to the House in a special election in 2004 and again in the 2004 general election, but owing to South Dakota's heavily conservative electorate and the defeat of fellow Democrat Tom Daschle, her seat is by no means safe. Then again, Herseth is wildly popular, with approval ratings in the 70's.

Texas

  • Chet Edwards (D-TX-17) — Edwards won reelection by a 51-48 margin in 2004 after the Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district dramatically and made it more Republican. He may be safer in 2006, though. His district includes Waco, Texas and Crawford, Texas the located of George W. Bush's ranch.
  • Tom DeLay (R-TX-22) — DeLay has been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges in recent months, and won reelection by a surprisingly small 55-41 margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64%. On September 28, 2005, Rep. DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. As a result, he was forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. DeLay will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district he dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting. Lampson's former district contained much of the area of DeLay's present district.

Utah

  • Jim Matheson (D-UT-02) — Though Matheson won a close reelection in 2004, his district includes much of heavily Republican southern Utah, but also heavily Democratic Salt Lake City, and he is a regular target of the GOP every election.

Washington

  • Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) — Reichert's district, at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area, is very competitive, and he won it only 52-48 in 2004.

Wisconsin

  • Ron Kind (D-WI-03) — Kind's district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes both the liberal bastion of Madison among otherwise conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Kind won the 2004 election 56% to 44%, a relatively narrow margin for the 2004 race, against state senator and former realtor Dale Schultz, and while the state of Wisconsin favored Kerry for president. The western edge of the Third District is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area; fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. On the other hand, the Madison area also continues to gain population, and tends to act as a magnet for Midwestern liberals, so the two trends may cancel each other out. So far, however, the only declared Republican candidate for Kind's spot is Paul Nelson, a realtor (like Schultz) and a proud former Marine, as he sums up in his own words: "I spent four years of my life as an Infantryman in the UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS and I am still ready to invade ANY hostile beach or take ANY fortified hill on behalf of my Real-Estate customers and clients!" It is unclear whether Nelson would be able to campaign competitively enough to pose a real threat to Kind.


One will not know the details on these races for some time, but most analysts expect the ones previously mentioned to be at least somewhat close. Updates will be posted through Election Night 2006.

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