United Kingdom general election, 2009/10
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The next United Kingdom general election must be held on or before 3 June, 2010.
The previous election in the UK was the general election of 2005 held on 5 May, 2005.
The Queen may, at the request of the Prime Minister, order the dissolution of Parliament at any time within five years of the date of the previous general election, although typically at least four years elapse before a new election is considered. In order to improve turnout it is possible that it may be held on June 11, 2009 in order to coincide with elections to the European Parliament. This would be keeping in line both with the recent practice for four-year terms, and the convention of holding parliamentary elections on a Thursday.
The general election will take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom, for seats in the House of Commons. There are currently 646 seats in the house, although the number of constituencies and their boundaries will change from those used at the previous general election, especially in England and Wales where a ten-year review is due for completion in 2007.
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Overview
The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to maintain its majority. The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics against losses in the 1990s, and to replace Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats will hope to make gains from both sides and to become the Official Opposition, replacing the Conservatives. Bookmakers are already taking bets and are predicting that Labour's majority will be reduced to between 20 and 30, losing seats mainly to the Conservatives; the bookmakers' predictions are based on boundary changes and applying the uniform swing toward the Conservatives that was seen in the 2001 and 2005 elections. Given that elections are influenced mainly by events that happen after the last one, these predictions may be wholly inaccurate.
Leadership of the parties
With both Tony Blair and Michael Howard having declared their intention to stand down before the next general election, it will be the first general election since 1979 in which both Labour and the Conservatives have leaders who are contesting their first general election as leader. Charles Kennedy of the Liberal Democrats has made clear no such intention. The two main party leaders going into the 1979 General Election were Labour Prime Minister James Callaghan and Conservative Party leader Margaret Thatcher. The result of the 2005 election for the Conservative leadership is expected to be announced on December 6.
Other parties
Many seats will also be contested by other parties. Parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Democratic Unionist Party, Health Concern, Plaid Cymru, RESPECT The Unity Coalition, the Scottish National Party, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the oath of allegiance to the Queen), the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and the Ulster Unionist Party. There was one independent member of Parliament, Peter Law, elected in the 2005 General election. Given vocal groups of opposition within both of the main parties, it is possible that the number of independent MPs will increase as members are expelled or resign.
Parties expected to contest the election that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005, but had seats in the devolved assemblies and European Parliament, include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom Independence Party, the various national Green parties, and the Scottish Socialist Party.
Boundary Changes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
When the periodical 8-12 year review of boundaries by the Boundary Commission in 2007 is completed, England and Wales will have a revision of its 569 seats. This is the first major change to Parliament constituencies since the 1997 General Election.
Some new seats will be created, some will be absorbed into others and other changes in the size and shape of constituencies will occur. The majority of seats, though, will only have minor alterations. It is already known that new seats are to be created in Bristol, Warwickshire, Lancashire and South Yorkshire, and that seats are to be abolished in Merseyside, North London and a combined region of Salford/Manchester and Trafford, but the list of created and abolished seats is always hard to confirm due to the nature of radical boundary alterations.
In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been created by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd; Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy.
Wales has not seen a drop in the number of constituencies, unlike Scotland in the 2002 boundary changes north of the border. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than the average English constituency. The current disribution is seen to benefit the Labour party, who have strong support in Wales, especially in the South where there are many small constituencies.
The Northern Ireland Boundary Commission are currently holding public meetings concerning their review. It was widely assumed the board would axe one of Belfast's four seats, but the provisional recommondations extend the capital's constituencies into rural areas whilst creating a new Antrim Coast and Glens seat from the existing Antrim North constituency.
The current list of confirmed constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales is here. The inital estimates for the 2009 general election is: Lab 350 (-6) Con 205 (+7) Lib Dem 65 (+3) Others 30 (Unchanged)
External links
Boundary Changes
| United Kingdom general elections | Image:Flag of the United Kingdom.svg | |
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