Vela Incident
From Freepedia
Image:Orthographic projection centered on the Prince Edward Island.png The Vela Incident (sometimes known as the South Atlantic Flash) was the possible detection of a nuclear weapon test by an American Vela satellite on September 22, 1979. Much of the information about the event is still classified.
Contents |
Detection
The flash was detected by one of the American Vela satellites developed to detect nuclear explosions. On 22 September 1979 at 00:53 GMT, the Vela 6911 satellite detected the characteristic double flash of an atmospheric nuclear explosion of some two to three kilotons apparently over the Indian Ocean or South Atlantic between Bouvet (a dependency of Norway) and the Prince Edward Islands (47S, 40E), a dependency of South Africa.
Vela 6911 was one of the pair launched on 23 May 1969, over ten years before the possible explosion. It was operating two years past its designed lifespan and its electromagnetic pulse (EMP) sensor had failed. It had also developed a fault in July 1972 where around half a second of its recording memory had failed. This had cleared itself in March 1978.
It is still uncertain whether the satellite's observations were accurate. After the blast was detected the Carter administration summoned a panel of experts who in early 1980 found that the report was likely erroneous, caused by a malfunction in the satellite. Most outside observers doubt this assertion.
The panel set up to review the evidence, the Ruina Panel, released its report in summer of 1980 and concluded that the signal "was probably not from a nuclear explosion. Although we cannot rule out that this signal was of nuclear origin". It proposed that the satellite was in error and had perhaps been hit by a small meteorite. That the explosion was only picked up by one of the satellites seems to support their assertion. US Air Force flights in the area soon after also failed to detect any sign of radiation.
Many doubt the panel's findings, arguing they were politically motivated. A considerable amount of evidence corroborating the nuclear hypothesis has been gathered. The Vela satellites previously detected 41 atmospheric tests, each of which had been subsequently confirmed through other means. There was some other data that seemed to confirm the explosion. Hydrophones operated by the US Navy detected a signal which was consistent with a small nuclear explosion on or slightly under the surface of the water near Prince Edward Island. The radio telescope at Arecibo, Puerto Rico also detected an anomalous traveling ionospheric disturbance at the same time. A test in Western Australia conducted a few months later found increased radiation levels. The Los Alamos scientists who worked on the Vela program remain convinced that their satellite worked properly.
It has also been proposed that there was an explosion, but one caused by a comet or other natural cause.
Responsibility
The two potential sources of an unexplained nuclear blast were Israel and South Africa, both of which had covert nuclear weapons programs at the time. A test by either Israel or South Africa would have been very awkward for the Carter administration. Israel was a close American ally, while the South African relationship was a close but unpopular one (the lack of popularity was due to apartheid). Carter had worked hard on nonproliferation issues, and a vigorous response would have been required if it had been proven that either nation had conducted the test. This would have disrupted the negotiations underway over the Camp David Accords.
If a nuclear explosion did occur it is also uncertain who triggered it. There are difficulties with both the South African and Israeli hypothesis. South Africa did have a nuclear weapons program at the time, and the geographic location of the tests points to their involvement. However, since the fall of apartheid South Africa has disclosed most of the information on its nuclear weapons program which point to South Africa not having the ability to mount such a test in 1979. However, in 1977, Soviet satellites reported a possible test site in the Kalahari Desert which was then dismantled. For South Africa to have carried out the tests a good number of the documents released would have to be forgeries.
Israel almost certainly had nuclear weapons in 1979, but it is questioned whether they had the capability to mount a covert test thousands of kilometers away. If it was an Israeli test it is almost certain that there was South African cooperation. Potentially the test was of an Israeli weapon but organized by South Africa.
It is unlikely any of the declared nuclear powers would have conducted such a test. They had little reason to conduct tests covertly (as all had standing traditions of overt nuclear testing except for India), and the small size of the blast might reflect a less advanced weapon (though there are many "advanced" reasons for small tests as well, including tactical nuclear weapons and testing the primary devices for thermonuclear weapons). The only other potential partner for South Africa sometimes mentioned is Taiwan.
Recent developments
Since 1980 some new evidence has emerged, however most questions remain unanswered. In 1994 Commodore Dieter Gerhardt, a convicted Soviet spy, was released from prison and emigrated to Switzerland. At the time of the Vela flash, he had been the commander of the Simonstown naval base. In February 1994 he told the Johannesburg City Press that the flash was produced by an Israeli-South African test. The test was supposed to be hidden by clouds, but at the last minute, the weather changed, and it was detected.
On 20 April 1997, the Israeli daily newspaper Ha'aretz, quoted South African Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad as confirming that the flash over the Indian Ocean was indeed from a South African nuclear test. Soon afterwards Pahad reported that he had been misquoted and that he was merely repeating the rumours that had been circulating for years.
Some related American information has been declassified, but little that sheds any light on the incident.
External links
- Proliferation: A flash from the past
- Report on the 1979 Vela Incident
- 1979 South Atlantic "Flash" is Consistent with a Nuclear Explosion, According to Newly Declassified Energy Department Documents
- Israeli Nuclear Weapons Testing
